236/237 calibrated
Each calibrated entity is anchored to the WPP 2024 population by single year of age—not a generic global survival assumption.
Release standard
Versioned, reproducible, and calibrated to the UN’s global demographic baseline.
This is a demographic estimate—not a census or a live registry—but it is built for public scrutiny. The released model is calibrated for 236 of 237 canonical entities against UN single-age population estimates, with Kosovo explicitly marked as a fallback. It is appropriate for global and country-level exploration when cited as an estimate from this release.
237/237 checked
Population-weighted time-zone shares are validated for every canonical entity and sum to exactly 100% before release.
One stated fallback
Kosovo has no matched WPP row in this release. It remains visibly flagged instead of being silently folded into a claim of complete direct coverage.
Source ledger
Named sources. Pinned files. Checkable outputs.
The machine-readable release record preserves the exact editions, SHA-256 file hashes, coverage, and transformations used by this release. Download the current country estimate CSV or JSON snapshot to inspect the published output directly.
| Input | Authority | Role and verification standard |
|---|---|---|
| Population by single year of age | UN World Population Prospects 2024 | Current cohort calibration source: pinned WPP 2024 single-age workbook, SHA-256 recorded in the release record. Kosovo is the one explicit unmatched entity. |
| Births by month and national vital statistics | UN Demographic Yearbook | Country-level seasonality where available; retain source-country, year, and completeness notes. |
| Detailed fertility series | Human Fertility Database | Quality source for covered countries; never silently extrapolate its patterns worldwide. |
| Population-weighted geography | European Commission GHSL | Current time-zone allocation source: GHS-POP 2025 global 1 km resident-population grid. It replaces land-area weighting and is normalized to exactly 100% per canonical entity. |
| Time-zone boundaries and rules | Timezone Boundary Builder; IANA tz database | Boundary geometry and civil-time rules. Pin release versions because both can change. |
A link alone is not provenance. This release pins the input versions and hashes, records the transformations, and runs conservation checks so others can reproduce or challenge the estimate.
How to use this release
A source for the estimate—not a substitute for vital records.
Use this release for an inspectable estimate of the current 13–19 population, for global/country comparisons, and for visual or educational work. For official programme denominators, legal decisions, or individual-level facts, use the responsible national statistical authority.
Suggested citation
Escaping Work. (2026). Teenagers Population: global population aged 13–19 (research release 2026-09-13; calibrated to UN World Population Prospects 2024). Retrieved from this tracker.
Include the release date and link to the release record so readers can identify the exact inputs behind a claim.
Scope boundary
Continuous display, annual demographic evidence
The headline is the released model’s central estimate at the displayed instant. Its continuous movement allocates annual demographic totals through dates, hours, and population-weighted civil time zones; it does not observe individual births, deaths, or migration in real time.
A quantified uncertainty interval will be published only after sensitivity validation. Its absence does not erase the verified input coverage or release checks listed above.
Release checks
What this release verifies before it publishes.
Conservation
For every country and cohort, time-zone and date/hour shares must total exactly 100%. The aggregate must not gain or lose people at a midnight or New Year boundary.
Validation
Compare modelled age totals against independent UN single-age population estimates. Test leap days, country mappings, missing inputs, annual rollovers, and the full published block schema.
Reproducibility
Each release should preserve source versions, raw-input hashes, code revision, assumptions, validation results, and a deterministic build command. That lets another researcher reproduce or dispute it.
Interpretation notes
- Annual demographic inputs are authoritative statistical estimates, not a real-time count of births, deaths, or migration.
- The time-zone allocation is population-weighted using an all-resident grid; nine tiny or geometry-missing entities use documented single-zone rules.
- Country-specific daily and hourly timing is a disclosed allocation model, not universal vital-registration microdata.
- Published demographic series arrive with a lag and may be revised. A quantified uncertainty interval and external review are the next release standards.
Release commitment
Make every update easier to verify than the last.
We publish the source versions, calculation rules, validation gates, and declared fallbacks needed to evaluate this estimate. Future releases add sensitivity intervals and external review; they do not pretend the current release is less useful than it is.
Read the project story and method